IHSG 27 September kembali rally diiringi dengan volume yang cukup besar Rp10.8 Trilliun. Sempat bergerak di area negatif pada sesi 1, IHSG rebound dan ditutup menguat 1.26% pada level 5,419. Sebanyak 170 saham menguat, 120 saham melemah dan 87 saham bergerak stagnan. Walaupun begitu, asing masih membukukan net sell yang cukup besar 503 Milliar dalam satu hari perdagangan kemarin. Hari ini kami memprediksikan IHSG akan kembali menguat bergerak pada area resistance 5,438 dan support 5,400. Tetap disiplin dalam trading serta waspada pada aksi profit taking untuk kondisi market pada hari ini. Dan berikut sektor dan saham penggerak IHSG kemarin.
Global & Commodity Indices
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Global & Commodity Indices
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HIGHLIGHT NEWS
1. U.S Stocks Rise on Consumer Confidence After Debate.
U.S. stocks shrugged off a drop in oil, rallying as consumer confidence jumped and banking shares rebounded. Mexico’s peso led emerging-market currencies higher on the perception American presidential nominee Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump in their first debate.
The S&P 500 Index furthered its quarterly advance, led higher by technology and retail companies, while European stocks halted a two-day rout as lenders trimmed their losses. Mexico’s peso, increasingly a barometer of anxiety around the Trump campaign, jumped the most since February versus the dollar. Treasuries advanced to a three-week high as the greenback retreated. Oil tumbled as Iran said it’s unwilling to freeze output at current levels and wants to raise production to 4 million barrels a day. Gold and copper also declined.
Equities climbed after data showing U.S. consumer confidence rose to the highest since 2007 bolstered optimism around the world’s largest economy. The report also fueled gains in Europe, where lenders almost erased losses and Deutsche Bank AG was unchanged after plunging to a record low. While stocks struggled to find direction in early trading, polls showing Clinton outperformed Trump in the debate were also cited as a reason for relief. Citigroup Inc. has said a Republican win in November could send shares slumping, and warned this week that such an event may also spur volatility for gold and currencies.
“You have the perspective that Trump lost the debate, and good consumer confidence numbers,” said Dennis Debusschere, a senior managing director and global portfolio strategist at Evercore ISI in New York. “If Deutsche Bank goes to the back page on the day, markets can focus on the election and the confidence data.”
The first of three presidential debates between Trump and Clinton ahead of the Nov. 8 election drew more than 83 million viewers, making it the most-watched in history. It beat the previous record for the biggest audience set during the 1980 debate between Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan, which had 80.6 million viewers.
A CNN poll showed that 62 percent of voters who watched the debate said Clinton won the discussion, compared with 27 percent for Trump. Still, the Republican and Democratic nominees each got 46 percent of likely voters in a head-to-head contest in a Bloomberg Politics national poll released before the event.
“Polls on voting intentions still show that the race is essentially neck and neck,” said James Athey, a money manager at Aberdeen Asset Management Plc in London, which has $402.9 billion in assets. “It will be these polls which truly have the power to drive a genuine re-pricing.”
Stocks
The S&P 500 added 0.6 percent to 2,159.93 as of 4 p.m. in New York, bringing its quarterly advance to 2.9 percent. Amazon.com Inc. jumped to a record, while Microsoft Corp. was up 1.9 percent to pace the rally.
“Really, it’s the consumer confidence number, which was extremely strong here, a big positive surprise that has helped the market,” said Timothy Ghriskey, who helps manage 1.5 billion as chief investment officer at Solaris Asset Management LLC in New York.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index added less than 0.1 percent, wiping out an earlier decline. Banks trimmed losses as Deutsche Bank erased a drop of as much as 3.5 percent. Commerzbank AG fell after a report that it plans to cut jobs and suspend dividend payments. Credit Suisse Group AG slid as its chief executive officer said the lender is mulling further cost cuts at the global markets unit that posted a loss earlier this year.
MSCI’s gauge of global equities rose 0.3 percent, and emerging-market shares halted a two-day slide, climbing 0.6 percent.
Futures on Asian indexes signaled declines after most benchmarks rallied Tuesday. Futures on Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average slipped 0.4 percent in Osaka but jumped 1.1 percent in Chicago with most shares on the country’s broader Topix index due to trade without the right to a dividend on Wednesday. Contracts on stock gauges in Australia, South Korea and Hong Kong fell at least 0.1 percent.(Bloomberg)
2. Oil Falls as Saudis Say OPEC Output Freeze Unlikely Wednesday.
U.S. stocks shrugged off a drop in oil, rallying as consumer confidence jumped and banking shares rebounded. Mexico’s peso led emerging-market currencies higher on the perception American presidential nominee Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump in their first debate.
The S&P 500 Index furthered its quarterly advance, led higher by technology and retail companies, while European stocks halted a two-day rout as lenders trimmed their losses. Mexico’s peso, increasingly a barometer of anxiety around the Trump campaign, jumped the most since February versus the dollar. Treasuries advanced to a three-week high as the greenback retreated. Oil tumbled as Iran said it’s unwilling to freeze output at current levels and wants to raise production to 4 million barrels a day. Gold and copper also declined.
Equities climbed after data showing U.S. consumer confidence rose to the highest since 2007 bolstered optimism around the world’s largest economy. The report also fueled gains in Europe, where lenders almost erased losses and Deutsche Bank AG was unchanged after plunging to a record low. While stocks struggled to find direction in early trading, polls showing Clinton outperformed Trump in the debate were also cited as a reason for relief. Citigroup Inc. has said a Republican win in November could send shares slumping, and warned this week that such an event may also spur volatility for gold and currencies.
“You have the perspective that Trump lost the debate, and good consumer confidence numbers,” said Dennis Debusschere, a senior managing director and global portfolio strategist at Evercore ISI in New York. “If Deutsche Bank goes to the back page on the day, markets can focus on the election and the confidence data.”
The first of three presidential debates between Trump and Clinton ahead of the Nov. 8 election drew more than 83 million viewers, making it the most-watched in history. It beat the previous record for the biggest audience set during the 1980 debate between Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan, which had 80.6 million viewers.
A CNN poll showed that 62 percent of voters who watched the debate said Clinton won the discussion, compared with 27 percent for Trump. Still, the Republican and Democratic nominees each got 46 percent of likely voters in a head-to-head contest in a Bloomberg Politics national poll released before the event.
“Polls on voting intentions still show that the race is essentially neck and neck,” said James Athey, a money manager at Aberdeen Asset Management Plc in London, which has $402.9 billion in assets. “It will be these polls which truly have the power to drive a genuine re-pricing.”
Stocks
The S&P 500 added 0.6 percent to 2,159.93 as of 4 p.m. in New York, bringing its quarterly advance to 2.9 percent. Amazon.com Inc. jumped to a record, while Microsoft Corp. was up 1.9 percent to pace the rally.
“Really, it’s the consumer confidence number, which was extremely strong here, a big positive surprise that has helped the market,” said Timothy Ghriskey, who helps manage 1.5 billion as chief investment officer at Solaris Asset Management LLC in New York.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index added less than 0.1 percent, wiping out an earlier decline. Banks trimmed losses as Deutsche Bank erased a drop of as much as 3.5 percent. Commerzbank AG fell after a report that it plans to cut jobs and suspend dividend payments. Credit Suisse Group AG slid as its chief executive officer said the lender is mulling further cost cuts at the global markets unit that posted a loss earlier this year.
MSCI’s gauge of global equities rose 0.3 percent, and emerging-market shares halted a two-day slide, climbing 0.6 percent.
Futures on Asian indexes signaled declines after most benchmarks rallied Tuesday. Futures on Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average slipped 0.4 percent in Osaka but jumped 1.1 percent in Chicago with most shares on the country’s broader Topix index due to trade without the right to a dividend on Wednesday. Contracts on stock gauges in Australia, South Korea and Hong Kong fell at least 0.1 percent.(Bloomberg)
2. Oil Falls as Saudis Say OPEC Output Freeze Unlikely Wednesday.
Oil dropped after Saudi Arabia said it doesn’t expect a production
accord to be reached when OPEC ministers meet Wednesday, but left open
the possibility of a deal when they gather in November.
Futures fell 2.7 percent in New York, continuing the gyrations of recent days. Saudi Oil Minister Khalid Al-Falih said several potential freeze pacts are being discussed, but that agreement in Algiers is unlikely when ministers meet informally Wednesday. Iran, Nigeria and Libya "have special conditions," Falih said. Influential forecasters gave a worsening outlook for the market, with the head of the International Energy Agency saying supply and demand won’t be in balance until late 2017 and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cutting its fourth quarter price forecast
"The market was falling with the growing realization that there will be no effective OPEC deal, then helped along by the IEA acknowledging the glut persisting through 2017," said Sarah Emerson, managing director of ESAI Energy Inc., a consulting company in Wakefield, Massachusetts.
Oil has fluctuated since rallying in August on speculation major producers will agree on ways to stabilize the market when they meet Wednesday. While Saudi Arabia offered last week to pump less crude if Iran caps output, neither of the neighboring countries expect an agreement this week. Freezing output was first proposed in February, but a meeting in April ended with no final accord.
Futures rose from the settlement after the industry-funded American Petroleum Institute was said to report U.S. crude supplies fell by 752,000 barrels last week. November WTI traded at $44.84 at 4:45 p.m. in New York. The API estimate contrasts with a Bloomberg survey estimating stockpiles would increase by 3 million barrels.
Brent for November settlement slipped $1.38, or 2.9 percent, to $45.97 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The global benchmark crude closed at a $1.30 premium to WTI.
Saudi Arabia offered to cut production to January levels, according to Algeria’s Energy Minister. That would remove about half of the kingdom’s 1 million barrel-a-day increase in output since it led OPEC’s push to defend market share in 2014. The U.A.E. supports a deal to freeze output if other nations agree, but production cuts are not up for discussion, Oil Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei said.
"The market is acutely focused on the headlines from Algiers," said Adam Wise, who helps run a $7 billion oil and natural gas bond and private equity portfolio at John Hancock in Boston. "Prices are down today because people don’t think there will be a consensus reached at the meeting."(Bloomberg)
.
3.Tax Amnesty Berhasil, SUN Laris Manis
Futures fell 2.7 percent in New York, continuing the gyrations of recent days. Saudi Oil Minister Khalid Al-Falih said several potential freeze pacts are being discussed, but that agreement in Algiers is unlikely when ministers meet informally Wednesday. Iran, Nigeria and Libya "have special conditions," Falih said. Influential forecasters gave a worsening outlook for the market, with the head of the International Energy Agency saying supply and demand won’t be in balance until late 2017 and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cutting its fourth quarter price forecast
"The market was falling with the growing realization that there will be no effective OPEC deal, then helped along by the IEA acknowledging the glut persisting through 2017," said Sarah Emerson, managing director of ESAI Energy Inc., a consulting company in Wakefield, Massachusetts.
Oil has fluctuated since rallying in August on speculation major producers will agree on ways to stabilize the market when they meet Wednesday. While Saudi Arabia offered last week to pump less crude if Iran caps output, neither of the neighboring countries expect an agreement this week. Freezing output was first proposed in February, but a meeting in April ended with no final accord.
Saudi Offer
West Texas Intermediate for November delivery dropped $1.26 to $44.67 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices have averaged about $44.80 this quarter.Futures rose from the settlement after the industry-funded American Petroleum Institute was said to report U.S. crude supplies fell by 752,000 barrels last week. November WTI traded at $44.84 at 4:45 p.m. in New York. The API estimate contrasts with a Bloomberg survey estimating stockpiles would increase by 3 million barrels.
Brent for November settlement slipped $1.38, or 2.9 percent, to $45.97 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The global benchmark crude closed at a $1.30 premium to WTI.
Moving Slowly
"The fundamentals are slowly moving, so headlines are punching above their weight," said Harold “Skip” York, vice president of integrated energy at consulting firm Wood Mackenzie Ltd. in Houston. "Rumors are what moves the market now in the short term."Saudi Arabia offered to cut production to January levels, according to Algeria’s Energy Minister. That would remove about half of the kingdom’s 1 million barrel-a-day increase in output since it led OPEC’s push to defend market share in 2014. The U.A.E. supports a deal to freeze output if other nations agree, but production cuts are not up for discussion, Oil Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei said.
"The market is acutely focused on the headlines from Algiers," said Adam Wise, who helps run a $7 billion oil and natural gas bond and private equity portfolio at John Hancock in Boston. "Prices are down today because people don’t think there will be a consensus reached at the meeting."(Bloomberg)
.
3.Tax Amnesty Berhasil, SUN Laris Manis
Jakarta. Katalis positif yang membalut pasar surat utang dalam negeri
memicu tingginya minat investor. Terlihat dari total penawaran lelang
Surat Utang Negara (SUN) pada Selasa (27/9) yang mencapai Rp 19,73
triliun.
Dalam lelang kali ini, pemerintah menyerap total dana Rp 14 triliun, di atas target indikatif yang dipatok Rp 12 triliun. Dana hasil lelang untuk memenuhi sebagian dari target pembiayaan dalam Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Negara (APBN) 2016. Settlement bakal berlangsung pada 29 September 2016.
Sekadar mengingatkan, pada lelang SUN dua pekan sebelumnya Selasa (13/9), pemerintah memenangkan dana Rp 12 triliun dari total penawaran Rp 16,52 triliun. Desmon Silitonga, Analis PT Capital Asset Management berpendapat, kenaikan penawaran lelang SUN dipicu oleh beberapa katalis positif sejak pekan lalu. Pertama, keputusan Bank Sentral Amerika Serikat (AS) atawa The Fed untuk mempertahankan suku bunga acuan di level 0,25% - 0,5% pada pertemuan 20 September 2016 – 21 September 2016.
Kedua, Bank Indonesia (BI) memangkas suku bunga BI 7 day reverse repo rate sebesar 25 bps menjadi 5% pada 22 September 2016. Ketiga, membaiknya performa rupiah di hadapan mata uang Negeri Paman Sam. Di pasar spot pada Selasa (27/9), rupiah menguat 0,66% dibandingkan hari sebelumnya ke level Rp 12.955 per dollar AS.
Keempat, keberhasilan kebijakan tax amnesty yang mulai unjuk gigi jelang akhir periode pertama pada September 2016. Hingga Senin (26/9) pukul 22.30 WIB, total deklarasi harta mencapai Rp 1.939 triliun. Rinciannya, deklarasi harta dalam negeri sebesar Rp 1.315 triliun dan dekalarasi harta luar negeri sebanyak Rp 526 triliun. Dari jumlah tersebut, sebanyak Rp 98,7 triliun merupakan dana repatriasi. Pmeerintah telah meraup dana tebusan Rp 46,3 triliun.
Menurut Desmon, tawaran yield oleh investor cukup moderat, sesuai dengan pergerakan di pasar sekunder. Makanya pemerintah memanfaatkan momentum tersebut dengan menyerap dana di atas target indikatif.(Kontan)
Dalam lelang kali ini, pemerintah menyerap total dana Rp 14 triliun, di atas target indikatif yang dipatok Rp 12 triliun. Dana hasil lelang untuk memenuhi sebagian dari target pembiayaan dalam Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Negara (APBN) 2016. Settlement bakal berlangsung pada 29 September 2016.
Sekadar mengingatkan, pada lelang SUN dua pekan sebelumnya Selasa (13/9), pemerintah memenangkan dana Rp 12 triliun dari total penawaran Rp 16,52 triliun. Desmon Silitonga, Analis PT Capital Asset Management berpendapat, kenaikan penawaran lelang SUN dipicu oleh beberapa katalis positif sejak pekan lalu. Pertama, keputusan Bank Sentral Amerika Serikat (AS) atawa The Fed untuk mempertahankan suku bunga acuan di level 0,25% - 0,5% pada pertemuan 20 September 2016 – 21 September 2016.
Kedua, Bank Indonesia (BI) memangkas suku bunga BI 7 day reverse repo rate sebesar 25 bps menjadi 5% pada 22 September 2016. Ketiga, membaiknya performa rupiah di hadapan mata uang Negeri Paman Sam. Di pasar spot pada Selasa (27/9), rupiah menguat 0,66% dibandingkan hari sebelumnya ke level Rp 12.955 per dollar AS.
Keempat, keberhasilan kebijakan tax amnesty yang mulai unjuk gigi jelang akhir periode pertama pada September 2016. Hingga Senin (26/9) pukul 22.30 WIB, total deklarasi harta mencapai Rp 1.939 triliun. Rinciannya, deklarasi harta dalam negeri sebesar Rp 1.315 triliun dan dekalarasi harta luar negeri sebanyak Rp 526 triliun. Dari jumlah tersebut, sebanyak Rp 98,7 triliun merupakan dana repatriasi. Pmeerintah telah meraup dana tebusan Rp 46,3 triliun.
Menurut Desmon, tawaran yield oleh investor cukup moderat, sesuai dengan pergerakan di pasar sekunder. Makanya pemerintah memanfaatkan momentum tersebut dengan menyerap dana di atas target indikatif.(Kontan)
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DAILY STOCKPICK
28 SEPTEMBER 2016
28 SEPTEMBER 2016
SWING TRADE
4-8 MINGGU
ACES
Speculative Buy: Rp885
Take Profit: Rp935
Cut Loss: Rp865
ERAA
Buy: Rp725
Take Profit: Rp790
Cut Loss: Rp670
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FAST TRADE
1-2 HARI
TAXI: Rp176
BNGA: Rp860
NIKL: Rp680
Speculative Buy: Rp885
Take Profit: Rp935
Cut Loss: Rp865
Buy: Rp725
Take Profit: Rp790
Cut Loss: Rp670
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FAST TRADE
1-2 HARI
TAXI: Rp176
BNGA: Rp860
NIKL: Rp680
Take Profit: 4%-5%
Cut Loss: 2%
!Gunakan Maksimal Hanya 20% Dari Total Dana Anda Dalam Melakukan Fast Trade!
"The Biggest Risk is Not Taking The Risk"
-Anonymous-
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Cut Loss: 2%
!Gunakan Maksimal Hanya 20% Dari Total Dana Anda Dalam Melakukan Fast Trade!
"The Biggest Risk is Not Taking The Risk"
-Anonymous-
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